School District of Philadelphia: Summer Melt: How Many Seniors Follow Through on Plans to Attend College? Results from the Senior Classes of 2022, 2023, and 2024
Posted by School District of Philadelphia on August 5, 2025
What Is Summer Melt?
Summer melt refers to the phenomenon in which a high school senior’s intention to attend college in the fall “melts away” during the summer. A higher summer melt rate indicates a lower college matriculation rate. In the School District of Philadelphia (SDP), the summer melt rate is calculated as the percentage of graduating 12th grade students who intend to go to college but do not matriculate within the first fall after graduation. Using this definition, researchers from the Harvard Center for Education Policy Research estimate that the national summer melt rate is between 10-40%.
Key Findings of the Report:
- The summer melt rates were 39.7% for the class of 2022, 36.9% for the class of 2023, and 40.5% for the class of 2024.
- SDP graduates who were male, Black/African American, Hispanic/Latine, Multi-Racial/Other, English Learners, receiving special education services, or economically disadvantaged had higher summer melt rates compared to their peers.
- The odds ratio analysis found that graduates who were male, Black/African American, Hispanic/Latine, Multi-Racial/Other, White, English Learners, and receiving special education had higher odds of experiencing summer melt across the graduating classes of 2021-22, 2022-23, and 2023-24.
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