New Research Brief: Can School Districts Bounce Back from Large Pandemic-Era Chronic Absenteeism Increases?

Posted by Everyone Graduates Center on July 14, 2026

New research from Jina Kim and Robert Balfanz, published this week by the Johns Hopkins University Everyone Graduates Center, The GRAD Partnership, and the Partnership for Student Success examines the extent to which school districts across the country that experienced significant increases in chronic absenteeism during the pandemic have been able to “bounce back” to near pre-pandemic levels of chronic absenteeism. Researchers examined districts nationwide that had at least a 10 percentage point increase in chronic absenteeism from pre- to post-pandemic and considered districts that were able to decrease their chronic absenteeism rate to within two percentage points of their pre-pandemic level by 2024-25 or 2023-24 to have “bounced back.” Notable findings include:

• Bouncing back is possible. The research finds that districts of all sizes and locales have been able to bounce back to near pre-pandemic levels of chronic absenteeism   We also find, however, that
• Bouncing back is not yet common. By the 2024-25 school year, only 11% of school districts that experienced significant post-pandemic chronic absenteeism increases had returned to chronic absenteeism levels close to pre-pandemic.
• While bouncing back took place in many different kinds of districts, it was most common in small and rural districts. 20% of small and rural districts bounced back by 2024-25 (compared to 100% of all districts). The small and rural districts that bounced back were largely concentrated in particular states, suggesting that state actions may have played a role in districts’ ability to bounce back.

Current and forthcoming research indicates that chronic absenteeism can be significantly reduced when schools are able to employ multiple evidence-based strategies, tailored to the specific needs of their students and families. This is enabled by strong student success teams and drawing on additional people power from community organizations and local higher education institutions to serve as tutors, mentors, success coaches, postsecondary transition coaches, and wraparound/integrated student support providers. Learn more about implementing strong student success systems from The GRAD Partnership and evidence-based people-powered student supports from the Partnership for Student Success.

Read the research brief.