Tariffs Could Push Nearly One Million Americans Into Poverty
Posted by Spotlight on Poverty and Opportunity on October 7, 2025
In this Spotlight Exclusive, we speak with John Ricco, associate director of policy analysis at The Budget Lab at Yale University, about a new study that predicts that tariffs put into place by the Trump administration could put as many as one million additional Americans below the poverty line in coming months. Using the official poverty measure, the analysis finds that close to 900,000 additional Americans would be living in poverty. And if you break that down by age, the study finds that 375,000 of those additional Americans living in poverty would be children. In terms of the broader population context, that’s a 0.3 percentage point increase in the poverty rate. Using the supplemental poverty measure, 650,000 additional Americans would be forced into poverty, of which 150,000 are children. In terms of the overall rate, that would be a 0.2 percentage point increase.
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